Multi-risk assessment in the NW coast of the Island of Malta (central Mediterranean Sea)

Ongoing climate change is leading to increased vulnerability of coastal communities and anthropogenic activities, exposing them to multiple hazards. Coastal areas are increasingly prone to be affected by weather- and climate-related processes: erosion, flooding, slope instability, and, on a longer-term, permanent inundation due to sea level rise. In this context, studies aiming at defining potential multi-risk scenarios serve as an essential tool for recognizing the most effective coastal management strategies and adaptation measures. In this research, a multi-risk framework was applied to assess and map the level of coastal risk along the north-west coast of the Island of Malta, central Mediterranean Sea. To this aim, the exposure, vulnerability and susceptibility levels to different physical processes (temporary and permanent inundation, shoreline erosion and rock fall) were estimated using an index-based approach. Then, the multi-risk assessment for the end-century period (2100) was calculated and mapped by exploiting GIS tools. The results highlight that the bays are the most critical zones in the investigated coastal sector. Under the worst-case conditions in 2100, medium-risk zones account for approximately 23% of the investigated area, while 6% falls under high-risk.